July 9, 2010
The Economic Cycle Research Institute released its Weekly Leading Indices for the week ending July 2. The latest readings continue to decline as a slowdown in the growth of the U.S. economy appears likely. The Weekly Leading Index dropped to 121.05 from 122.3 in the prior week. The Weekly Growth Rate Index came in at -8.3 percent from a reading of -7.3 in the previous period. This latest reading marks the 9th decline in a row and 5th straight week in negative territory, dating back to the first week in June.
ECRI Weekly Indices - Historical Chart
If a slowdown is in the cards for the U.S. economy, the question then becomes if we are to see a double dip recession or not? ECRI’s Managing Director, Lakshman Achuthan said as stated in a Reuters article that there needs to be a “persistent” decline in the index in order to determine the possibility of a double dip in the U.S. economy. Bondsquawk, dug deep in attempting to define a “persistent decline” in this article, posted several weeks ago.
In addition, Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economist, David Rosenberg offered some great insight on the decline of the ECRI Indices and provided a blueprint of what we might expect in terms of performance from various asset classes. Check it out, posted here.
Posted by Rom on 