July 23, 2010
The Economic Cycle Research Institute released its Weekly Leading Indices for the week ending July 16. The latest reading shows no sign of letting up and is now in negative double digit territory. While the Weekly Leading Index 120.7 is unchanged from a revised prior week reading, the Weekly Growth Rate Index came in at -10.5 percent from a downward revised reading of -9.8 in the previous week. This latest reading marks the 11th decline in a row and 7th straight week in negative territory, dating back to the first week in June.
As we mentioned last week, Gluskin Sheff’s Chief Economist, David Rosenberg said several weeks ago when the ECRI Growth Rate Index started to slide, “to keep an eye out for the -10 threshold, for at that level, the economy has gone into recession… only 100% of the time.” Given the recent spate of macro data suggesting a slowdown and possibly a double-dip, coupled with Ben Bernanke’s remarks of an “unusually uncertain” outlook, today’s latest reading does not bode well for the economy in the coming months.
Posted by Rom on 