Up Close Look at Debt Versus Equity

As debt instruments, bonds represent an obligation of the issuer to pay the bondholder a rate of interest over the life of the investment and to repay the principal at maturity.

Equities (stocks) represent an ownership interest in the issuer, and do not represent a contractual obligation. Equity investors hope that their ownership interest will increase in value as the issuing company grows revenues and profits.

While stock issuers may pay a dividend, they do so at the discretion of the issuer’s management and board of directors. As a legal obligation, the failure of a debt issuer to pay a debt obligation would put them in default, which could force the company into bankruptcy, although this rarely happens.

Bondholders are secured creditors and are the first to be paid in the event of bankruptcy liquidation.

The hierarchy of payment in the event of liquidation is:

  • Secured Creditors (including bondholders)
  • Unsecured Creditors (typically bank loans)
  • Preferred shareholders
  • Common shareholders

Typically, there is nothing left for the common shareholders.

The Carry Trade

The principal behind the carry trade is to borrow short to purchase a longer-term bond that will pay a higher rate than the rate of the short-term loan.

Dealers finance their treasury purchases by borrowing against their treasury holdings by doing repo transactions, which are essentially loans collateralized by treasuries.

The risk/reward is determined by the spread between the treasury yield and the repo rate the dealer pays.

Longer maturity bonds will trade at a greater spread because:

  • They are more price-sensitive to changes in interest rates
  • They have a longer time horizon that presents more uncertainty as to the level of interest rates.

If the Fed raises rates – a dealer could end up with a negative spread.

The two-year note is a particularly popular security for the carry trade because its yield is closely tied to the fed funds rate and it is extremely liquid.

Repurchase Agreements (Repos) and Reverses

Repo, short for repurchase agreement (also known as RP), is a form of short-term borrowing for government securities dealers.

In a repo transaction, the dealer sells a treasury security to investors with an agreement to repurchase the security at a later date, usually the next day, and at a fixed rate of return to the investor (the repo rate).

Repos can also be done for a longer term, such as a week or a month (this is known as term repo) or a Repo can be done on open without a fixed repurchase rate.

The rate for an open repo is most often renegotiated on a daily basis.  It is effectively a short-term loan that is collateralized by a treasury security.  The investor (lender) in the transaction is entering into a reverse repurchase agreement or reverse.

Typically, the term repo is used for both repos and reverses since the terms only refer to which side of the transaction one is on.

Dealers use repos to finance their activities because treasury securities are subject to market risk (because the price fluctuates). Due to the changing price, the investor will not lend the full value of the security.  The difference between the value of the security and the amount that is borrowed is called a haircut.

Bond Trader Talk

2’s : 2yr notes

5’s : 5yr notes

10’s: 10yr notes

ABX Index: A series of credit default swaps based on 20 bonds comprised of subprime mortgages.

Across the Curve: Every bond in the yield curve.

Back End: The long end of the yield curve.  The opposite of Front End.

Basis Point (BP): .01%

Belly: The intermediate part of the yield curve. See wings

Beta: a number that measures the correlation if the returns of a security or portfolio to the returns of the market.  A beta of zero means there is no correlation.  A positive beta indicates that the asset moves in the same direction as the market, and a negative beta means the asset moves in the opposite direction of the market.

Big Bid: High demand for a security.

Bonds – 30yr Bonds

Breakeven Curve: A yield curve of the yield spread between TIPS and nominals.

Cheapest to Deliver (CTD):  For a futures contract that can be settled by the delivery of more than one debt issue, this is the issue that is most profitable (cheapest) to deliver.

Capitulation: To give up on trying to recover market losses by exiting from a losing trade.

CapU: Short for capacity utilization, an economic indicator the measures the percentage of current economic output to the potential maximum output.

Carry: The accrued interest minus the cost of financing a securities position.

Cash Bonds: Actual bonds as opposed to bond futures.

Consolidate (Consolidative): A downward correction after a market has been rising.

Convexity Buying: When convexity players buy treasuries in a falling rate environment to hedge against the risk of negative convexity.  The opposite of convexity selling or convexity paying.  Also referred to as convexity hedging.

Convexity Flows: Convexity buying or selling.

Convexity Paying: See convexity selling.

Convexity Players: Mortgage Backed Securities investors, mortgage servicers, and mortgage related GSEs that use treasuries to hedge against the risk of negative convexity.  Convexity players will buy treasuries in a falling rate environment because the price of the treasuries will increase and offset the effects of the negative convexity of the mortgages.

Convexity Selling: When convexity players sell treasuries in a rising rate environment to unwind hedges that they put on to hedge against the risk of negative convexity.  The opposite of convexity buying.

Credit Default Swap: A swap contract in which the buyer purchases protection against the default of a credit instrument from the swap seller.

Decent Bid: Decent demand for a security.

Directs: A direct bidder in a treasury auction- a primary dealer.  The opposite of Indirects

Dovish: Used by traders to describe the Federal Reserve FOMC attitudes towards interest rates to indicate a desire to have low interest rates; the opposite of Hawkish.

Fast Money: Leveraged buying of securities, typically by hedge funds.  The opposite of Real Money.

Flatter (Flatten): Used by traders to describe changes in the yield curve to indicate a decrease in the difference short-term rates and long-term rates; the opposite of Steeper.

Flows: The flow of money into or out of a market.

Front End: The short end of the yield curve.  The opposite of Back End.

Good Bid: Good demand for a security.

Great Bid: Great demand for a security.

Hawk (Hawkish): Used by traders to describe the Federal Reserve FOMC attitudes towards interest rates to indicate a desire to have high interest rates; the opposite of Dovish.

HC: Short for high coupon.

Hit: When a trader takes a market maker’s bid and sells the security.

Implied Volatility (IV): An estimated measure of the volatility of a security’s price.  Implied volatility generally increases in a bear market, and decreases in a bull market.

Indexers: Money managers that create portfolios to match an index like the Lehman Aggregate Bond Index. Similar concepts exist in the equity markets when money managers are indexed to the S&P 500.

Indirects: An indirect bidder in a treasury auction that places their bid through a dealer.  Because they are often foreign buyers of treasuries, traders often use this as an indication of how much foreign buying there has been in a treasury auction.  The opposite of Directs.

Lift: When a trader takes a market maker’s offer and buys the security.

Long End: A reference to the long end of the yield curve, or longer maturity bonds.

Loop Effect: The phenomenon that certain technical factors will cause market price movements to feed upon themselves and accelerate the price movement.  For example, rising prices can cause short sellers to buy into the rally to cover their shorts and limit their losses.  This buying accelerates the rising prices.

Negative Convexity: A phenomenon attributable to callable bonds (particularly mortgage back securities) that causes the price to increase less, or even decrease, when interest rates decrease.  The reason is that it becomes more likely that the principal is likely to be repaid and will have to be reinvested at the new lower rates.

Nominals: Regular treasury securities

Old Bonds: Off -the-run bonds, as opposed to current or on-the-run bonds.

Option Adjusted Duration (OAD): The measurement of duration adjusted for the first option (put or call, but usually a call) provision.  Adjusting for a call provision will shorten the duration of a bond.

Option Adjusted Spread (OAS): A spread to the treasury yield that accounts for imbedded options in a bond  that could result in an early redemption.  It is usually used to account for the potential negative impact of mortgage prepayments on an MBS when interest rates fluctuate.

Play Large (Big): When the market aggressively participates in a treasury auction.

Play Small: When the market does not aggressively participate in a treasury auction.

Prime X Index: An index that allows investors to take positions on prime mortgage-backed securities through credit default swaps.

Real Money: Unleveraged buying of securities typically by money managers.  The opposite of Fast Money.

Real Rates: The real level of interest rates that is free of credit risk premium and inflation premium.  Also referred to as real yield.

Real Rate Longs: A trade position of being long TIPS

Real Yield Curve: The yield curve comprised of TIPS, or real yields.

Rock: Trader lingo for par. For example, I just traded some 10’s at the rock!

Secular: Long term.

Short End: A reference to the short end of the yield curve, or shorter maturity bonds.

Steeper (Steepen): Used by traders to describe changes in the yield curve to indicate an increase in the difference short-term rates and long-term rates; the opposite of Flatter.

Stop: The highest yield accepted in a treasury auction.

Swap Spreads: A swap is an over the counter agreement to exchange cash flows.  Most often it is an exchange of a fixed interest rate payment with a floating one.  There is default risk in a swap.  The swap spread is the yield spread between swaps and the default risk free return of treasuries.  Swap spreads are an indication of the markets aversion to risk.  Because of the size and liquidity of the swap market, it is thought of as a better indicator than credit spread.

Tail: The spread, in basis points, between the when-issued yield of a treasury security just prior to auction and the highest yield (the Stop) of the auction.  A tail indicates weak demand with demand being inversely related to the size of the tail (the larger the tail, the less demand for the bond).

Tailed: An auction that resulted in a tail, indicating a lack of demand.

Tick: In reference to the price of a bond as expressed as a percentage of par, a tick is 1/32nd or .03125 of a point.

Two-Way Flows: Active buying and selling from investors in a security.

Ultralongs: The 30-year bond.

Waving it in: When a trader likes a security so much that they want to buy large quantities.  Also referred to as backing up the truck.

Wings: The short end and long end of the yield curve. See belly.

Yard: A billion dollar trade.

Zero Volatility Option Adjusted Spread: A measure of cash flow spread of an MBS over the treasury yield curve that takes into account the prepayment risk of the MBS.A measure of cash flow spread of an MBS over the treasury yield curve that takes into account the prepayment risk of the MBS.

Posted by Mike on March 19, 2010 under Educational
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“Yield Curves” The Upward Sloping Curve

A yield curve is a graph of the yields of closely related bonds of different maturities. The vertical axis of the graph represents the yield, and the horizontal axis represents the time to maturity. The yield curve of treasury securities is the most commonly seen yield curve in the U.S.

There are four basic yield curve shapes:

The upward sloping curve is historically the norm given the normal relationship that the longer the time to maturity, the higher the yield.

The shape of the yield curve changes with the business cycle and has been a good leading indicator of economic activity. A steeply positive sloped yield curve is indicative of an economic recovery, and is often found at the end of recessions. Its shape reflects market expectations of a significant increase in interest rates and the fact that the fed is keeping short-term rates low to aid a slumping economy recover.

“Yield Curves” The Inverted Yield Curve

A yield curve is a graph of the yields of closely related bonds of different maturities. The vertical axis of the graph represents the yield, and the horizontal axis represents the time to maturity. The yield curve of treasury securities is the most commonly seen yield curve in the U.S.

There are four basic yield curve shapes:

An inverted yield curve occurs when interest rates are very high and expected to fall. A flat yield curve indicates that the term to maturity has no impact on interest rates.

The shape of the yield curve changes with the business cycle and has been a good leading indicator of economic activity. A steeply positive sloped yield curve is indicative of an economic recovery, and is often found at the end of recessions. Its shape reflects market expectations of a significant increase in interest rates and the fact that the fed is keeping short-term rates low to aid a slumping economy recover.

“Yield Curves” The Humped Yield Curve

A yield curve is a graph of the yields of closely related bonds of different maturities. The vertical axis of the graph represents the yield, and the horizontal axis represents the time to maturity. The yield curve of treasury securities is the most commonly seen yield curve in the U.S.

There are four basic yield curve shapes:

A humped yield curve initially rises, but then falls for longer maturities. Inverted and flat yield curves are fairly rare. In recent years institutional investors have had high demand for the 30-year long bond, which has raised its price to the point that it often yields less than the 20-year. This has caused the humped curve to be the most common shape in recent years.

The shape of the yield curve changes with the business cycle and has been a good leading indicator of economic activity. A steeply positive sloped yield curve is indicative of an economic recovery, and is often found at the end of recessions. Its shape reflects market expectations of a significant increase in interest rates and the fact that the fed is keeping short-term rates low to aid a slumping economy recover.

“Yield Curves” The Flat Yield Curve

A yield curve is a graph of the yields of closely related bonds of different maturities.  The vertical axis of the graph represents the yield, and the horizontal axis represents the time to maturity.  The yield curve of treasury securities is the most commonly seen yield curve in the U.S.

There are four basic yield curve shapes:

Flat yield curves are fairly rare.  In recent years institutional investors have had high demand for the 30-year long bond, which has raised its price to the point that it often yields less than the 20-year.  This has caused the humped curve to be the most common shape in recent years.

The shape of the yield curve changes with the business cycle and has been a good leading indicator of economic activity.  A steeply positive sloped yield curve is indicative of an economic recovery, and is often found at the end of recessions.  Its shape reflects market expectations of a significant increase in interest rates and the fact that the fed is keeping short-term rates low to aid a slumping economy recover.

The Simple Definition of a Bond

Understanding bonds

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The borrower/issuer will usually be the U.S. government, a government agency, a state or local municipality, or a large corporation such as General Electric.

A bond is issued at face value (typically $1,000 for corporate bonds, $5,000 for municipal bonds, and $100 for government bonds). The issuer promises to pay the bondholder back his principal at a specified date known as the maturity date. As compensation for the loan, the issuer pays the bondholder a rate of interest known as the coupon rate.

For example, if an investor purchases five ten year bonds at face value that pays a 6% coupon, the bondholder will receive $300 a year for ten years and then receives a $5,000 principal payment on the maturity date. This steady annual payout is the reason that bonds are referred to as fixed income investments. It’s important to note, however, that bonds are often issued with a coupon rate that periodically fluctuates with the general level of interest rates. These instruments are known as Floating Rate Bonds.

Posted by John Adams on March 5, 2010 under Educational
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What Influences the Level of Credit Spreads?

Chart of North America Investment Grade Credit Index

All domestic bonds that are not treasury issues contain some amount of default or credit risk.  This risk means that these bonds must compensate the bondholder for assuming this risk by providing a yield greater than what a treasury security of the same maturity would pay.  This yield premium is known as the credit spread.  For example, if the 10-year treasury note is yielding 5% and a 10-year AAA rated corporate bond yields 5.75%, the credit spread is .75%.

The credit spread represents the market’s perceived creditworthiness of the bond issuer and will not only vary from one bond to another, but will fluctuate over time for the same bond.  The credit spread is calculated based on the current on-the-run treasury.

The primary determinant of a bond’s credit spread is the bond’s credit rating.  However, not all bonds of the same credit rating and maturity will trade with the same credit spread.  Factors that can cause an issue’s credit spread to be larger/smaller than the credit spread of other issues of the same credit rating include:

  • A negative/positive outlook for the issuer’s industry group
  • A competitive disadvantage/advantage for the issuer
  • Expectations of a ratings downgrade/upgrade
  • A deteriorating/improving business or financial trend for an industry or issuer
  • An issue with less/more relative liquidity
Posted by John Adams on February 28, 2010 under Educational
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